Preview & Predictions: 27th SAG Awards

BY SCOTTIE KNOLLIN

After it won the Producers Guild Awards, Chloé Zhao’s “Nomadland” was deemed the official frontrunner of this awards season. But, the Screen Actors Guild Awards could give a much-needed boost to films like “Minari” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” since “Nomadland” isn’t in the running for the top SAG Awards prize. In other years, the statistic that a film not at least nominated for the top SAG award rarely has a chance to win Best Picture would lead some to think “Nomadland” doesn’t have a chance at Best Picture. However, the addition of AFTRA members in the SAG Awards voting and an increase in more diverse filmmaking voices has meant surprise winners and nominees have crept up year-to-year. Of the very few times a film has won Best Picture without a SAG Award nomination for Best Ensemble is “The Shape of Water”, which won Best Picture in 2018. “Nomadland” is still expected to be the Oscar winner, becoming a sort of anomaly.

For this year’s SAGs, three of the films in the running for Outstanding Performance by a Case in a Motion Picture are not in the running for the Oscar for Best Picture. Two of those films, “Da 5 Bloods” and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”, feature the final performances of Chadwick Boseman.

Of the two films that are nominated for both Best Ensemble and the Oscar for Best Picture, both “Minari” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” have strong reasons to expect a win. “Minari” is seen as the film following closely behind “Nomadland” in the running for Best Picture. The film is a critically-praised drama that features Oscar-nominated performances by multiple cast members: Steven Yeun and Yuh-jung Youn (both are also singled out for SAG nominations, as well). For “The Trial of the Chicago 7”, only Sacha Baron Cohen cemented an individual nomination out of the prestigious cast of film and stage actors.

In the individual categories, all eyes are on Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. In the former, Carey Mulligan needs the win to solidify her actual chances of winning the Oscar. If she misses the SAG win, that category is wide open for the Academy Award. Even more important for those trying to predict the Oscars is the Supporting Actress award. Despite the extra long awards season, that category has remained an impossible category to predict. If Glenn Close wins, it could signal her eventual Oscar win (even though “Hillbilly Elegy” has been so poorly received by critics and audiences). If Maria Bakalova wins, we can almost certainly expect an ingenue triumph on Oscar Sunday.

The 27th Screen Actors Guild Awards will be broadcast on TNT and TBS on Sunday, April 4, beginning at 8:00 p.m. CST. All categories were pre-taped and winners’ acceptance speeches pre-recorded to be presented in an edited, one-hour format.

FULL LIST OF FILM PREDICTIONS:

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
DA 5 BLOODS
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
MINARI
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Will Win: THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Could Win: MINARI
Should Win: MINARI

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE
Amy Adams, HILLBILLY ELEGY
Viola Davis, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Vanessa Kirby, PIECES OF A WOMAN
Frances McDormand, NOMADLAND
Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

Will Win: Carey Mulligan, PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Could Win: Frances McDormand, NOMADLAND
Should Win: Frances McDormand, NOMADLAND

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE
Riz Ahmed, SOUND OF METAL
Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Anthony Hopkins, THE FATHER
Gary Oldman, MANK
Steven Yeun, MINARI

Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Could Win: Anthony Hopkins, THE FATHER
Should Win: Chadwick Boseman, MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Maria Bakalova, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
Glenn Close, HILLBILLY ELEGY
Olivia Colman, THE FATHER
Youn Yuh-Jung, MINARI
Helena Zengel, NEWS OF THE WORLD

Will Win: Maria Bakalova, BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
Could Win: Youn Yuh-Jung, MINARI
Should Win: Youn Yuh-Jung, MINARI

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Chadwick Boseman, DA 5 BLOODS
Sacha Baron Cohen, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Daniel Kaluuya, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Jared Leto, THE LITTLE THINGS
Leslie Odom, Jr., ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Could Win: Sacha Baron Cohen, THE TRAIL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH