How to Win the Academy Award for Best Picture

BY SCOTTIE KNOLLIN

In 2009, in a move to help bolster viewership and also counter the bad press received when The Dark Knight failed to make the list of nominees, the Academy increased the Best Picture category from five to ten nominees. After two years (which included a few questionable additions to the Best Picture nominees list), the Academy switched to a preferential ballot that meant the number of films to earn a Best Picture nomination could fluctuate. While it’s been a decade since ten films have been nominated for the biggest award in Hollywood, we’ve yet to get ten nominees again as the preferential ballot tries single out the most extraordinary of the films of the year.

Does the ‘best’ film win Best Picture? Has the ‘best’ film won Best Picture every year since the Academy was formed almost a century ago? The answer to both questions is a resounding, “No.” Of the five hundred and sixty-three films that have been nominated for Best Picture, including the nine vying for the prize at the upcoming 92nd Academy Awards, history has written which films are actually the most influential (just ask the 14th Academy Awards when How Green Was My Valley beat Citizen Kane).

Since the preferential ballot was introduced, the Best Picture winner has rarely been unanimously celebrated. Last year, Green Book picked up the prize despite heavy promotion of more critically- and commercially-acclaimed titles. That win for Green Book is a perfect example of how the preferential ballot affects the outcome of the Academy’s voting: a lesser-praised, okay movie edging out more unique and groundbreaking fare. Moonlight’s win a few years earlier is more surprising, considering the preferential ballot system, as it beat out the ‘bigger’ beloved film, La La Land.

First Round: Ranking

For nominations, each Academy member votes for the award related to their specific branch of the Academy and the Best Picture prize. The directors vote for directors. The actors vote for actors. So on and so forth. And everyone votes for Best Picture. All of those categories’ nominations are strictly the popular vote (the top five vote-getters become the nominees), except for Best Picture.

To vote for Best Picture, each voting member ranks their top ten choices. When those votes are being counted, in order to make the cut, a film must earn at least 5% of the first-place votes. That magic number means that the list of nominees, while impressive and immediately a piece of cinema history, could include a movie or two with 20% of the first-place votes up against a single film that only earned 5%. That single film could still end up the eventual winner once it gets into the final round of voting.

Second Round: Ranking again, but different

Once the nominees have been announced, the studios go into overdrive promoting the films as much as possible (within the Academy’s rules, of course). Typically, the nominated films earn re-releases to theaters and ad buys increase a ton. If a film is already available to rent/own, you can expect to see more and more ads directing you to watch. The increased attention works, too, as many of the films earn a second round of profits just from being nominated (which is one of the reasons the Oscars were created to begin with).

The second round of ranked voting is even more lucrative than the first round. How the votes play out all depends on the strategic ranked placement of each film in each person’s ranked list. Since the preferential ballot was first re-introduced (it was actually how the Academy determined its winners in the 30s and 40s), many prognosticators say that the safest place for a film to be is actually in second place during the initial vote count, especially during a year with a number of major buzzed-about nominees. The reason? How the votes are distributed once a film is scratched off the list.

Rule of thumb at this point for Academy voters is to ignore the probabilities at this point and just vote by genuine ranking. If they played this way, we’d actually get a clear general consensus when the envelope is opened and the winner announced (unless Faye Dunaway is part of that equation). Some voters don’t follow this rule of thumb and instead either just list the one film they want to win (which is risky when it comes to how votes are tabulated) or they’ll try to ‘sabotage’ films they feel could beat their favorite film (usually their second or third place genuine choices) by listing them lower on their list. All that does is allow a film they liked less earn more votes and a potential win. Some have suggested this may have been the key to Green Book’s eventual win in 2019.

To win Best Picture, a film needs hit the magic number of +50% of first-place votes. It’s rare that a film does that on the first round of tabulating, so the preferential ballot kicks in and allows for films to earn additional first-place votes as they knock films off the list.

Each step of the counting process is repeated until a film hits that +50% of first-place votes threshold. Here’s how the actual final vote count process occurs:

Step One. The accountants tabulate how many first-place votes each nominee earns.
Step Two. They eliminate the film with the least amount of first-place votes.
Step Three. For every ranked list from voters with that now-eliminated film in first place, the second-place film is now considered the new first-place choice on those ballots. These new first-place votes are added to the number that was calculated during Step One.
Step Four. That same process continues until a film finally crosses the +50% of first-place votes threshold.

While following those steps, you’ll see how a fifth or sixth place film on many lists could actually end up snaking its way to the top of the list. For Oscar voters, it’s imperative they truly vote for the film they think is best from the start.

PricewaterhouseCoopers, the accountants who’ve been counting the Oscars votes for decades, handles the confusing process of counting and redistributing votes to find the ultimate winner. Trying to find a general consensus of voters is a good idea, in theory, but when even the people who are voting aren’t completely aware of how each step works, you end up with a mixed bag of winners (again, cue Green Book). The 92nd Academy Awards could be a year that mirrors Moonlight’s defeat of La La Land if Parasite or 1917 comes out on top. The general consensus would match the critical and commercial success of the two film-making achievements and few naysayers will be whining about those films new place in history. Or, with so many beloved films in the mix, enough different films could swing the first round of voting to allow a second-place favorite like Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood or Joker to come out victorious.

Because of the confusing process and a few eyebrow-raising winners, some are calling for the Academy to revisit the Best Picture category. What do you think? Should it just be the popular vote like the other categories? Sound off in the comments below!

SAMPLE BALLOT RESULTS

We ran a sample ballot to put the preferential voting system to the test. We had exactly 100 participants rank each Best Picture nominee from favorite to least favorite. Here’s how the balloting system played out:

Round One
Parasite received the most number of first-place votes (27%), which already gave it a pretty great head start. In order to be crowned the Best Picture, it needed to appear in most of the other ballots in the second or third place. 1917, the other Best Picture front runner, also started this round strong with 22% of the first-place votes.

The film with the least amount? The Irishman. Which means, it was officially out of the running and all of the ballots that listed it in first place would now be used to determine where its 4% of first-place votes would go.

Here’s how each film was ranked following the first round of votes:
1. Parasite (27%)
2. 1917 (22%)
3. Little Women (10%) (tie)
3. Marriage Story (10%) (tie)
5. Joker (8%)
6. Jojo Rabbit (7%) (tie)
6. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (7%) (tie)
8. Ford v. Ferrari (5%)
9. The Irishman (4%)

Round Two
Because The Irishman received the fewest first-place votes, it was eliminated and its ballots were reconfigured to count towards its next-in-line votes. Basically, whichever film was in second place on the ballots that originally had The Irishman in first place received the credit for the next round of vote counting.

Ford v Ferrari earned a little boost, when counting those now-lost votes from The Irishman. But, it wasn’t enough of a boost to get it out of the danger zone. Joker and 1917 also saw minor increases in their overall totals. Neither were set to eclipse Parasite yet, but 1917 was the one that looked like it could come close. It all depended on how it fell in the next round of voting (if it was a lot of people’s second choice, that could have worked in its favor).

Three films tied for last place this round, which meant all of their next-in-line votes would continue on to bring us closer to a consensus winner.

Here’s how each film was ranked following the second round of votes:
1. Parasite (27%)
2. 1917 (23%)
3. Little Women (10%) (tie)
3. Marriage Story (10%) (tie)
5. Joker (9%)
6. Ford v Ferrari (7%) (tie)
6. Jojo Rabbit (7%) (tie)
6. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (7%) (tie)

Round Three
With Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood officially on the cutting room floor, all of their first-place ballots were recounted, giving credit to the next qualifying title on the list (for some ballots, that meant looking at a third or fourth place vote). Marriage Story earned a few additional votes, while Little Women failed to earn any additional votes (putting it in jeopardy).

Additionally, as you’ll see below, Parasite is still at the top, but it had yet to cross the 50%+ threshold yet to be declared the winner.

Here’s how each film was ranked following the third round of votes:
1. Parasite (33.67%)
2. 1917 (29.59%)
3. Marriage Story (14.28%)
4. Joker (12.24%)
5. Little Women (10.20%)

Round Four
Parasite continued to hold strong and with the next round of vote counting (which sorted Little Women’s first place votes) it began taking a stronger lead against 1917. It still needed to cross 50%, but the finish line was in view. Marriage Story continued to earn additional mentions, though to get those votes, many of the first-place votes were actually fifth and sixth place votes. That was due to many of the already-disqualified films showing up higher on the other ballot’s lists. If anything, the power of the preferential ballot was felt more during this round than any others.

Here’s how each film was ranked following the fourth round of votes:
1. Parasite (38.77%)
2. 1917 (32.65%)
3. Marriage Story (15.30%)
4. Joker (13.26%)

Round Five
Despite its blockbuster box office status and eleven Oscar nominations, Joker failed to show up high enough on the right ballots to stay in the game. And, while Marriage Story still earned another three votes, it wasn’t nearly enough to jump past 1917 or Parasite. The latter, by the way, ended round five within six percentage points of the threshold to be named the winner. It was pretty obvious at that point that Parasite would be crowned Best Picture, but to be sure, we had one more round to complete.

Here’s how each film was ranked following the fifth round of votes:
1. Parasite (44%)
2. 1917 (36%)
3. Marriage Story (19.35%)

Round Six
Marriage Story’s first place votes were exponentially in favor of Parasite. It was so prevalent, that the Korean film not only passed the necessary threshold, but ended round six over five percentage points past the 50% needed. After six rounds, Parasite was the official Best Picture winner. It may not be a surprise, given Parasite’s front-runner status, but had it showed up a position or two differently on the right round of ballots, we would have either been continuing to count or it could have gone the way of Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, a strong contender that exited very early in the process.

Here’s how each remaining film was ranked following the sixth and final round of votes:
1. Parasite (56.47%)
2. 1917 (43.52%)

HOW TO USE THIS KNOWLEDGE TO YOUR ADVANTAGE

We’re not suggesting Parasite will be the actual winner, so don’t quote us when filling out your own prediction ballot. Instead, we’re shining light on how the process can work in the advantage of the actual better selections of those films nominated, or how a third or fourth place favorite could sneak into first place. Marriage Story is not expected to be the big winner, but it definitely earned more votes than most would think. It’s a well-liked and enjoyable movie, so it makes sense that people would put it in the slots behind awards season juggernauts like Parasite and 1917.

Not every year is such a tight race between a select few titles, so the votes could go all over the place. This year, however, it’s pretty certain the tallying will be used to get Parasite or 1917 across the 50%+ mark, instead of finding a winner out of nine worthy nominees.