No Guts, No Glory: Final Oscars Nominations Predictions

BY SCOTTIE KNOLLIN

A year ago, The Academy became one of the first film bodies to make the executive decision to push its 2021 awards eligibility dates, creating a 16 month calendar for films to release and compete for Hollywood’s biggest prize. If awards voters were skeptical in recent years of the rise of the streaming service, this year has forced the biggest films to find a home in our living rooms, instead of on the big screens at our local megaplexes or arthouse cinemas. All is not lost to Netflix, however, as even the frontrunners, like “Nomadland”, still found time to earn a few dollars with silver screen releases ahead of their streaming debuts.

As studios shuffled their release calendars, awards predictors have had the most difficult year since the Oscars began nearly a century ago in figuring out which films will qualify, which historic trends will remain, and which head-scratching titles will make the final cut. Precursor awards have been little help as only a few titles and individuals have been able to sew their way through the awards season fabric unscathed.

If you asked anyone last March, Glenn Close would finally be getting her due for her unrecognizable transformation in Netflix’s “Hillbilly Elegy”. In fact, both Close and her co-star, Amy Adams, were written about as finally becoming Oscars darlings after years and years of multiple nominations and zero wins. That film, like many others, didn’t live up to the hype, but both actors did earn Screen Actors Guild nominations. It’ll be a stretch to see them make it on the Oscars shortlists, but stranger things have happened.

From the moment it premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival, Chloé Zhao’s “Nomadland” was called the year’s best picture (I was one of those voices who immediately messaged my cinephile friends with the same sentiments). After winning at TIFF and the Venice Film Festival, it’s become the year’s most surefire and dependable awards choice. And, Zhao herself has become the most-awarded individual in awards season history. It’s a safe bet to expect her to end up with a few little gold men on Oscar Sunday.

The rest of the categories are a mixed bag of expected honorees (Chadwick Boseman will definitely earn a posthumous Best Actor nomination, if not a win, for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) and delightful choices (if Maria Bakalova makes the nominations list for her work in “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”, as many predict, she’ll become the talk of the town).

This marks my tenth year of predicting the Oscars and my track record has only gotten better. While I know I will have missed some of the nominees (I don’t have “The Mauritanian” listed in any category despite its few precursor nods and wins), it’s been a while since I’ve felt this confident in my final predictions.

Nominations will be announced by Priyanka Chopra Jonas and Nick Jonas at 7:19 a.m. CT on The Academy’s social media platforms.

Best Picture

THE FATHER
(Sony Pictures Classics)

JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
(Warner Bros.)

MANK
(Netflix)

MINARI
(A24)

NOMADLAND
(Searchlight Pictures)

ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
(Amazon Studios)

PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
(Focus Features)

SOUND OF METAL
(Amazon Studios)

THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
(Netflix)

Best Director

Lee Isaac Chung
MINARI
(A24)

Emerald Fennell
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
(Focus Features)

David Fincher
MANK
(Netflix)

Aaron Sorkin
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
(Netflix)

Chloé Zhao
NOMADLAND
(Searchlight Pictures)

Best Actress

Viola Davis
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
(Netflix)

Andra Day
THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
(Hulu)

Vanessa Kirby
PIECES OF A WOMAN
(Netflix)

Frances McDormand
NOMADLAND
(Searchlight Pictures)

Carey Mulligan
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
(Focus Features)

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed
SOUND OF METAL
(Amazon Studios)

Chadwick Boseman
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
(Netflix)

Anthony Hopkins
THE FATHER
(Sony Pictures Classics)

Gary Oldman
MANK
(Netflix)

Steven Yeun
MINARI
(A24)

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova
BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
(Amazon Studios)

Glenn Close
HILLBILLY ELEGY
(Netflix)

Olivia Colman
THE FATHER
(Sony Pictures Classics)

Amanda Seyfried
MANK
(Netflix)

Yuh-Jung Youn
MINARI
(A24)

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
(Netflix)

Daniel Kaluuya
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
(Warner Bros.)

Jared Leto
THE LITTLE THINGS
(Warner Bros.)

Leslie Odom, Jr.
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
(Amazon Studios)

Paul Raci
SOUND OF METAL
(Amazon Studios)

Best Original Screenplay

MANK
Jack Fincher
(Netflix)

MINARI
Lee Isaac Chung
(A24)

PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Emerald Fennell
(Focus Features)

SOUND OF METAL
Abraham Marder, Darius Marder, Derek Cianfrance
(Amazon Studios)

THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Aaron Sorkin
(Netflix)

Best Adapted Screenplay

THE FATHER
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
Based on the play Le Pére by Florian Zeller
(Sony Pictures Classics)

FIRST COW
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
Based on the novel The Half Life by Jonathan Raymond
(A24)

MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Ruben Santiago-Hudson
Based on the play Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom by August Wilson
(Netflix)

NOMADLAND
Chloé Zhao
Based on the book Nomadland by Jessica Bruder
(Searchlight Pictures)

ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
Kemp Powers
Based on the play One Night in Miami… by Kemp Powers
(Amazon Studios)

Best Animated Feature

THE CROODS: A NEW AGE
Joel Crawford, Mark Swift (producers)
(DreamWorks Animation)

ONWARD
Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae (producers)
(Pixar)

OVER THE MOON
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim (producers)
(Netflix)

SOUL
Pete Docter, Dana Murray (producers)
(Pixar)

WOLFWALKERS
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, Nora Twomey (producers)
(Apple TV Plus/GKIDS)

Best Production Design

MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Mark Ricker (production designer)
Karen O’Hara, Diana Stoughton (set decorators)
(Netflix)

MANK
Donald Graham Burt (production designer)
Jan Pascale (set decorator)
(Netflix)

NEWS OF THE WORLD
David Crank (production designer)
Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)
(Universal Pictures)

TENET
Nathan Crowley (production designer)
Kathy Lucas (set decorator)
(Warner Bros.)

THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Shane Valentino (production designer)
Andrew Baseman (set decorator)
(Netflix)

Best Cinematography

CHERRY
Newton Thomas Siegel
(Apple TV Plus)

MANK
Erik Messerschmidt
(Netflix)

NEWS OF THE WORLD
Dariusz Wolski
(Universal Pictures)

NOMADLAND
Joshua James Richards
(Searchlight Pictures)

THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Phedon Papamichael
(Netflix)

Best Costume Design

EMMA.
Alexandra Byrne
(Focus Features)

MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Ann Roth
(Netflix)

MANK
Trish Summerville
(Netflix)

MULAN
Bina Daigeler
(Walt Disney Pictures)

ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck
(Amazon Studios)

Best Film Editing

THE FATHER
Yorgos Lamprinos
(Sony Pictures Classics)

MINARI
Harry Yoon
(A24)

NOMADLAND
Chloé Zhao
(Searchlight Pictures)

SOUND OF METAL
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
(Amazon Studios)

THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Alan Baumgarten
(Netflix)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

EMMA.
Marese Langan (hair and makeup designer)
(Focus Features)

HILLBILLY ELEGY
Eryn Krueger Mekash (makeup department head)
Patricia Dehaney (hair department head)
Matthew Mungle (prosthetic designer)
(Netflix)

MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
Matiki Anoff (makeup department head)
Mia Neal (hair department head)
Larry M. Cherry (hair department head)
(Netflix)

MANK
Kimberley Spiteri (hair department head)
Gigi Williams (makeup department head)
(Netflix)

PINOCCHIO
Mark Coulier (prosthetic designer)
Dalia Colli (makeup artist)
Francesco Pegoretti (hair designer)
(Roadside Attractions)

Best Sound

GREYHOUND
Odin Benitez, Jason King, Christian P. Minkler, Michael Minkler, Jeff Sawyer
(Apple TV Plus)

MANK
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance, Drew Kunin
(Netflix)

NEWS OF THE WORLD
John Pritchett, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller, Oliver Tarney, Michael Fentum
(Universal Pictures)

SOUND OF METAL
Phillip Bladh, Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés, Carolina Santana
(Amazon Studios)

THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Renee Tondelli, Dan Kenyon, Julian Slater, Michael Babcock, Thomas Varga
(Netflix)

Best Visual Effects

MANK
Wei Zheng, Simon Carr, Pablo Helman, James Pastorius
(Netflix)

THE MIDNIGHT SKY
Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Dave Watkins, Max Solomon
(Netflix)

MULAN
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury, Steve Ingram
(Walt Disney Pictures)

TENET
Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott R. Fisher, Mike Chambers
(Warner Bros.)

WELCOMES TO CHECHNYA
Ryan Laney, Maxwell Anderson, Johnny Han, Piers Dennis
(HBO)

Best Original Score

MANK
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
(Netflix)

THE MIDNIGHT SKY
Alexandre Desplat
(Netflix)

MINARI
Emile Mosseri
(A24)

NEWS OF THE WORLD
James Newton Howard
(Universal Pictures)

SOUL
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
(Pixar)

Best Original Song

ALL IN: THE FIGHT FOR DEMOCRACY
”Turntables”
Written by Janelle Monáe, Nathaniel Irvin III, George “George 2.0” A. Peters II
(Amazon Studios)

EUROVISION SONG CONTEST: THE STORY OF FIRE SAGA
”Húsavik”
Written by Savan Kotecha, Rickard Goransson, fat max Gsus)
(Netflix)

JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
”Fight for You”
Written by H.E.R., Dernst Emile II, Tiara Thomas
(Warner Bros.)

THE LIFE AHEAD
”Io Si (Seen)”
Written by Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccoló Agliardi

ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
”Speak Now”
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
(Amazon Studios)

Best Documentary Feature

COLLECTIVE
Alexander Nanau, Bernard Michaux, Hanka Kastelicová, Bianca Oana
(Magnolia Pictures and Participant)

CRIP CAMP
Nicole Newnham, James Lebrecht, Sara Bolder Hittman
(Netflix)

TIME
Lauren Domino, Kellen Quinn, Garrett Bradley
(Amazon Studios)

THE TRUFFLE HUNTERS
Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw
(Sony Pictures Classics)

WELCOME TO CHECHNYA
David France, Alice Henty, Askold Kurov, Joy A. Tomchin
(HBO)

Best International Feature

ANOTHER ROUND
(Denmark)

COLLECTIVE
(Romania)

NIGHT OF THE KINGS
(Ivory Coast)

QUO VADIS, AIDA?
(Bosnia and Herzegovina)

TWO OF US
(France)

Best Animated Short

BURROW
(Disney Plus/Pixar)

IF ANYTHING HAPPENS I LOVE YOU
(Netflix)

OPERA
(Beasts and Natives Alike)

OUT
(Disney Plus)

THE SNAIL AND THE WHALE
(Magic Light Pictures)

Best Documentary Short

ABORTION HELPLINE, THIS IS LISA
(Topic)

A CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION
(Breakwater Studios)

COLETTE
(Time Travel Unlimited)

A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA
(Netflix)

WHAT WOULD SOPHIA LOREN DO?
(Netflix)

Best Live-Action Short

FEELING THROUGH
(Doug Roland Films)

THE HUMAN VOICE
(Sony Pictures Classics)

THE LETTER ROOM
(Salaud Morisset, Topic)

TWO DISTANT STRANGERS
(Dirty Robber, NowThis)

WHITE EYE
(TBD)