94th Oscars Predictions: September 2021 Edition
BY SCOTTIE KNOLLIN
The Venice Film Festival kicked off last week. Telluride wrapped up yesterday (September 6). And Toronto begins this week. Festival season is here, which means awards season is right around the corner.
The 94th Academy Awards are set for Sunday, March 27, 2022. Until then, NDFS’s Scottie Knollin will offer monthly updated predictions using the latest buzz as a guide.
SEPTEMBER 2021 UPDATE
For this first iteration, I’m taking a look at Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress. In the coming months, I’ll add additional categories.
So far, the most-buzzed-about potential Oscar darlings are the ones who’ve either succeeded at staying in the conversation well past their originally scheduled release dates (“Dune”) or have succeeded in becoming Twitter trends and pop culture moments (“House of Gucci”). That being said, there are plenty of titles that have yet to even release production images, but they’re already earning enough buzz to fill an entire Oscars campaign (hello, “Nightmare Alley”).
Netflix and other streamers are continuing to try and break into Oscar territory and this year feels like the most plausible, so far. Jane Campion’s latest, “The Power of the Dog,” is earning rave reviews with many calling it Campion’s masterpiece. Its stars, Benedict Cumberbatch, Jesse Plemons, and Kirsten Dunst, are all expected to make the list of nominees. On the other side of the streaming wars, Apple TV+ is banking on “CODA,” the record-breaking Sundance winner.
As more film release dates are announced and after the festivals reward their top titles, awards season prospects should begin to solidify. If you remember, “Nomadland” screened at both Venice and in Toronto before driving its way into Academy history.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Winner: NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Why It Could Win: Del Toro’s “The Shape of Water” is the only Best Picture winner since 2015 to win below-the-line technical awards alongside its Best Picture win. The other winners succeeded, perhaps, mostly due to the preferential ballot system the Academy uses. The Academy has leaned more “obscure” lately and the love they have for del Toro is mighty. Add to it the film’s star-studded cast (including Cate Blanchett, Rooney Mara, Willem Dafoe, Bradley Cooper, Toni Collette, Richard Jenkins, Mary Steenburgen, David Strathairn, and many others), period costumes, and top tier special effects, and yo’ve got a recipe for success.
Why It Could Not Win: It seems like a lock for a 2021 release, but it has yet to be announced as a premiere at any festival. Like its predecessor, which won awards at nearly every film festival ahead of awards season, if it wants to be taken seriously, it needs to start building buzz yesterday.
Other Possible Nominees (listed alphabetically)
CODA
DON’T LOOK UP
DUNE
HOUSE OF GUCCI
KING RICHARD
THE POWER OF THE DOG
SOGGY BOTTOM (working title)
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
WEST SIDE STORY
Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)
BEING THE RICARDOS
BELFAST
THE FRENCH DISPATCH
PARALLEL MOTHERS
TICK, TICK…BOOM
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Winner: Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Why They Could Win: Campion hasn’t released a film in so, so long, so the thirst for her director’s eye is strong. The film has earned incredible reviews from the festival circuit, so far, which bodes well for her. Plus, there’s still good fortune nearly 30 years later for “The Piano,” which many feel like should have resulted in a win for her way back then.
Why They Could Not Win: The field is particularly strong this year with many top tier names releasing films in the next few months. Plus, Netflix has another serious awards contender in Paolo Sorrentino’s “The Hand of God.” The streaming service hasn’t always been the best at balancing its awards prospects, so special attention will need to be paid to the campaigns for both in order to allow them to co-exist.
Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)
Paul Thomas Anderson, SOGGY BOTTOM (working title)
Joel Coen, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Guillermo del Toro, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Denis Villeneuve, DUNE
Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)
Pedro Almodovar, PARALLEL MOTHERS
Wes Anderson, THE FRENCH DISPATCH
Kenneth Branaugh, BELFAST
Ridley Scott, HOUSE OF GUCCI
Steven Spielberg, WEST SIDE STORY
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Winner: Denzel Washington, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Why They Could Win: It’s a beloved Hollywood icon taking on Shakespeare opposite the (arguably) most-beloved actress of our time (Frances McDormand) in a film by one of the Coen brothers. If that’s not a recipe for a win, I’m sorry.
Why They Could Not Win: Will Smith is gunning for his fourth nomination and first win for “King Richard.” The film has now been screened at several festivals and nearly every critic has cemented Smith as a noble contender. Since no one has seen “The Tragedy of Macbeth” just yet, it may be way too early to land on Washington.
Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)
Bradley Cooper, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Benedict Cumberbatch, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Adam Driver, HOUSE OF GUCCI
Will Smith, KING RICHARD
Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)
Timothée Chalamet, DUNE
Clifton Collins Jr, JOCKEY
Leonardo DiCaprio, DON’T LOOK UP
Andrew Garfield, TICK, TICK…BOOM
Joaquin Phoenix, C’MON C’MON
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Winner: Lady Gaga, HOUSE OF GUCCI
Why They Could Win: Maybe it’s bold to not just settle on Kristen Stewart after her performance in “Spencer” received raves in Venice, but there’s something about Lady Gaga that is just begging for an acting Oscar. “House of Gucci” looks a little over-the-top, but in a good way, and could give the star a Liza Minnelli-esque launch into the bonafide acting universe. Her performance in “A Star is Born” was seen as a gimmick by some. “House of Gucci” gives her the chance to prove she’s got the chops.
Why They Could Not Win: Like the Best Director category, this year is cutthroat in potential actress nominees. Kristen Stewart is earning career-best notices and her first true Oscar buzz. That could be enough to create a narrative most will want to get behind.
Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)
Jessica Chastain, THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
Jennifer Hudson, RESPECT
Frances McDormand, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Kristen Stewart, SPENCER
Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)
Cate Blanchett, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Olivia Colman, THE LOST DAUGHTER
Jodie Comer, THE LAST DUEL
Penelope Cruz, PARALLEL MOTHERS
Kirsten Dunst, THE POWER OF THE DOG (Netflix has yet to determine if Dunst will be campaigned in Actress or Supporting Actress)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Winner: Jesse Plemons, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Why They Could Win: Plemons has been a critically-acclaimed character actor for years, but he’s never been able to break into the awards conversation (it almost happened last year with “I’m Thinking of Ending Things”). He’s said to be one of the most captivating elements of “The Power of the Dog” and could be the film’s best chance at an acting win for its powerhouse ensemble cast.
Why They Could Not Win: Competition is tight this year. If any category could use a frontrunner, it’s Supporting Actor. Plemons could get lost in the conversation if he doesn’t start sparking buzz soon.
Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)
Bradley Cooper, SOGGY BOTTOM (working title)
Corey Hawkins, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Richard Jenkins, THE HUMANS
Jared Leto, HOUSE OF GUCCI
Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)
Adam Driver, THE LAST DUEL
Richard Jenkins, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
J.K. Simmons, BEING THE RICARDOS
Forest Whitaker, RESPECT
Jeffrey Wright, THE FRENCH DISPATCH
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Winner: Ann Dowd, MASS
Why They Could Win: Of the predicted winners, so far, Dowd is the one with the strongest “I can’t believe she’s never won” narrative, which could help. “Mass” is expected to be a big film with its performances at its heart. Her costar, Martha Plimpton, would also be a fun winner to see, but Dowd is expected to receive the majority of the film’s praise.
Why They Could Not Win: The film is strictly a performance drama, which means something flashier could sway voters. Plus, with the entire cast being campaigned in supporting categories, she could split votes with Plimpton, leaving room for other contenders. ALSO, Netflix has yet to determine how they’re campaigning Kirsten Dunst for “The Power of the Dog.” If she goes in Supporting Actress, consider her the new frontrunner.
Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)
Ariana Debose, WEST SIDE STORY
Kirsten Dunst, THE POWER OF THE DOG (Netflix has yet to determine if Dunst will be campaigned in Actress or Supporting Actress)
Rooney Mara, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)
Nina Arianda, BEING THE RICARDOS
Toni Collette, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Rebecca Ferguson, DUNE
Olga Merediz, IN THE HEIGHTS
Ruth Negga, PASSING
