94th Oscars Predictions: October 2021 Edition

BY SCOTTIE KNOLLIN

The 94th Academy Awards are set for Sunday, March 27, 2022. Until then, NDFS’s Scottie Knollin will offer monthly updated predictions using the latest buzz as a guide.

OCTOBER 2021 UPDATE

The 2021 Toronto International Film Festival awarded its top prize to Kenneth Branaugh’s “Belfast,” which gives the black-and-white heartwarming drama a major awards season boost. In fact, when the September predictions were published, “Belfast” was in the Bubbling Under list of potential nominees and now it sits as one of the films with the most predicted nominations.

Not far behind “Belfast” are “The Power of the Dog,” the current predicted Best Picture winner, and “Dune,” the film currently predicted to become the most-awarded film of the upcoming Oscars. Both films have yet to be seen outside of festivals. “Dune” is set to hit theaters and HBO Max this month. Its reception from audiences could really paint its prospects as either a critical and commercial hit or a big budget disaster. Either way, its awards success is leaning more towards technical achievements. None of its actors are expected to break into the very competitive acting races.

As for the actors, not much has changed other than a few performers solidifying their respective categories. Its still expected that Will Smith and Kristen Stewart will walk away with the top acting prizes.

In late October and early November, we’ll finally start seeing how voting bodies are sitting with the best of 2021. One thing to note, we’re not as lucky this year with the festivals awarding similar films. Cannes gave its prize to “Titane,” a weird movie not expected to make much headway with the Academy. TIFF awarded the crowd-pleaser “Belfast.” And Venice handed its top prize to the French film “Happening,” also not expected to earn any Oscar attention.

View the September 2021 predictions here.

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Winner: THE POWER OF THE DOG

Other Possible Nominees (listed alphabetically)

BELFAST
CODA
DUNE
HOUSE OF GUCCI
KING RICHARD
LICORICE PIZZA
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
WEST SIDE STORY

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

BEING THE RICARDOS
DON’T LOOK UP
PARALLEL MOTHERS
SPENCER
TICK, TICK…BOOM

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Winner: Jane Campion, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Other Possible Nominees (listed alphabetically)

Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA
Kenneth Branaugh, BELFAST
Guillermo del Toro, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Denis Villeneuve, DUNE

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

Pedro Almodóvar, PARALLEL MOTHERS
Joel Coen, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Asghar Farhadi, A HERO
Ridley Scott, HOUSE OF GUCCI
Steven Spielberg, WEST SIDE STORY

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Winner: Will Smith, KING RICHARD

Other Possible Nominees (listed alphabetically)

Benedict Cumberbatch, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Peter Dinklage, CYRANO
Adam Driver, HOUSE OF GUCCI
Denzel Washington, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

Timothée Chalamet, DUNE
Clifton Collins Jr, JOCKEY
Bradley Cooper, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Andrew Garfield, TICK, TICK…BOOM
Joaquin Phoenix, C’MON C’MON

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Winner: Kristen Stewart, SPENCER

Other Possible Nominees (listed alphabetically)

Jessica Chastain, THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
Lady Gaga, HOUSE OF GUCCI
Jennifer Hudson, RESPECT
Frances McDormand, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

Cate Blanchett, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Olivia Colman, THE LOST DAUGHTER
Jodie Comer, THE LAST DUEL
Penelope Cruz, PARALLEL MOTHERS
Renate Reinsve, THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Winner: Richard Jenkins, THE HUMANS

Other Possible Nominees (listed alphabetically)

Bradley Cooper, LICORICE PIZZA
Corey Hawkins, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Jared Leto, HOUSE OF GUCCI
Jesse Plemons, THE POWER OF THE DOG

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

Ciarin Hinds, BELFAST
Jason Isaacs, MASS
J.K. Simmons, BEING THE RICARDOS
Kodi Smit-McPhee, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Jeffrey Wright, THE FRENCH DISPATCH

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Winner: Ann Dowd, MASS

Other Possible Nominees (listed alphabetically)

Ariana Debose, WEST SIDE STORY
Kirsten Dunst, THE POWER OF THE DOG
Aunjanue Ellis, KING RICHARD
Marlee Matlin, CODA

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

Caitriona Balfe, BELFAST
Judi Dench, BELFAST
Rooney Mara, NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Olga Merediz, IN THE HEIGHTS
Ruth Negga, PASSING

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Winner: BELFAST (Kenneth Branaugh)

Other Possible Nominees (listed alphabetically)

DON’T LOOK UP (Adam McKay, David Sirota)
LICORICE PIZZA (Paul Thomas Anderson)
MASS (Fran Kranz)
PARALLEL MOTHERS (Pedro Almodóvar)

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

BEING THE RICARDOS (Aaron Sorkin)
C’MON C’MON (Mike Mills)
THE FRENCH DISPATCH (Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, Roman Coppola)
A HERO (Asghar Farhadi)
KING RICHARD (Zach Baylin)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Winner: THE POWER OF THE DOG (Jane Campion)

Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)

CODA (Sian Heder)
THE LOST DAUGHTER (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
NIGHTMARE ALLEY (Guillermo del Toro, Kim Morgan)
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH (Joel Coen)

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

CYRANO (Erica Schmidt)
DUNE (Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth)
HOUSE OF GUCCI (Becky Johnston, Roberto Bentivegna)
THE HUMANS (Stephen Karam)
PASSING (Rebecca Hall)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Winner: FLEE

Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)

ENCANTO
LUCA
THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES
RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

BELLE
SING 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Winner: DUNE

Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)

BELFAST
THE FRENCH DISPATCH
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
WEST SIDE STORY

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

BEING THE RICARDOS
CYRANO
LICORICE PIZZA
SPENCER
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

Best Cinematography

Predicted Winner: DUNE

Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)

BELFAST
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
THE POWER OF THE DOG
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

THE GREEN KNIGHT
SPENCER
TICK, TICK…BOOM
WEST SIDE STORY

Best Costume Design

Predicted Winner: SPENCER

Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)

CRUELLA
DUNE
HOUSE OF GUCCI
NIGHTMARE ALLEY

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

BELFAST
CYRANO
THE FRENCH DISPATCH
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
WEST SIDE STORY

Best Film Editing

Predicted Winner: BELFAST

Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)

DON’T LOOK UP
DUNE
KING RICHARD
THE POWER OF THE DOG

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

LICORICE PIZZA
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
NO TIME TO DIE
TICK, TICK…BOOM
WEST SIDE STORY

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Winner: DUNE

Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)

THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
HOUSE OF GUCCI
KING RICHARD
SPENCER

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

CRUELLA
LICORICE PIZZA
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
THE SUICIDE SQUAD

Best Sound

Predicted Winner: DUNE

Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)

BELFAST
NO TIME TO DIE
TICK, TICK…BOOM
WEST SIDE STORY

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

THE GREEN KNIGHT
THE LAST DUEL
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
THE MATRIX RESURRECTIONS
THE POWER OF THE DOG

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Winner: DUNE

Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)

DON’T LOOK UP
ETERNALS
THE MATRIX RESURRECTIONS
SHANG CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

FREE GUY
GODZILLA VS. KONG
SWAN SONG
THE TOMORROW WAR

Best Original Score

Predicted Winner: DUNE (Hans Zimmer)

Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)

THE FRENCH DISPATCH (Alexandre Desplat)
NIGHTMARE ALLEY (Nathan Johnson)
PARALLEL MOTHERS (Alberto Iglesias)
SPENCER (Jonny Greenwood)

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

DON’T LOOK UP (Nicholas Britell)
LICORICE PIZZA (Jonny Greenwood)
THE POWER OF THE DOG (Jonny Greenwood)

Best Original Song

Predicted Winner: “BE ALIVE,” Beyoncé, Dixson (KING RICHARD)

Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)

“COLOMBIA, MI ENCANTO,” Lin-Manuel Miranda (ENCANTO)
”DOWN TO JOY,” Van Morrison (BELFAST)
“EVERY LETTER,” The National (CYRANO)
”NO TIME TO DIE,” Billie Eillish, Finneas O’Connell (NO TIME TO DIE)

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

“BELIEVE,” Aloe Blacc (THE RESCUE)
”DON’T LOOK UP,” Ariana Grande, Kid Cudi (DON’T LOOK UP)
”MY GUNS GO BANG,” JAY-Z, Kid Cudi (THE HARDER THEY FALL)
”HERE I AM (SINGING MY WAY HOME),” Carole King, Jennifer Hudson, Jamie Hartman (RESPECT)
”SO MAY WE START,” Sparks, Leos Carax (ANNETTE)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Winner: THE RESCUE

Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)

ATTICA
FLEE
JULIA
SUMMER OF SOUL

Bubbling Under (listed alphabetically)

THE VELVET UNDERGROUND
WHO WE ARE: A CHRONICLE OF RACISM IN AMERICA

Best International Feature

Predicted Winner: A HERO (Iran)

Other Nominees (listed alphabetically)

COMPARTMENT NO. 6 (Finland)
DRIVE MY CAR (Japan)
FLEE (Denmark)
THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD (Norway)